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Wheel of Fortune: The Battle for Oil and Power in Russia, by Thane Gustafson
Download PDF Wheel of Fortune: The Battle for Oil and Power in Russia, by Thane Gustafson
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The Russian oil industry—which vies with Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest producer and exporter of oil, providing nearly 12 percent of the global supply—is facing mounting problems that could send shock waves through the Russian economy and worldwide. Wheel of Fortune provides an authoritative account of this vital industry from the last years of communism to its uncertain future. Tracking the interdependence among Russia’s oil industry, politics, and economy, Thane Gustafson shows how the stakes extend beyond international energy security to include the potential threat of a destabilized Russia.
Gustafson, a leading consultant and analyst of the politics of energy in the former Soviet Union, draws on interviews with key players over the course of two decades to provide a detailed history of the oil industry’s evolution since the breakup of the Soviet Union. At its center is the complex and fraught relationship between the oil industry and the state, which loosened its grip under Yeltsin only to tighten it again under Putin. As oil becomes harder to find and more expensive to produce and deliver, Gustafson warns, Russia’s growing dependence on revenue from oil exports, along with its inefficient and often-corrupt management of the industry, is unsustainable.
A rich but troubled Soviet legacy, the conflicting ambitions of politicians and industry oligarchs, and the excesses of capitalism Russian-style threaten to lead Russia to an impasse. Involving the oil industry in the country’s modernization agenda and remaking its relationship to the state, Gustafson argues, is Russia’s best path toward a stable economy and a safer world.
- Sales Rank: #1148329 in Books
- Published on: 2012-11-06
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.43" h x 1.48" w x 6.67" l, 2.24 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 672 pages
Review
Thane Gustafson is the master expert on Russia's vast oil and gas industry. In his latest book, which is meticulously researched and lucidly written, he tells the story of the past two decades as the hydrocarbon-rich Eurasian giant has sought, in fits and starts, to shuck its Soviet past and become a normal, modern nation, integrated into the global economy. (Strobe Talbott, President, Brookings Institution)
Thane Gustafson has seen close up the wrenching challenges in the Russian oil industry. This is an excellent book written from firsthand experience. (Lord Browne of Madingley, Group Chief Executive, BP p.l.c., 1995–2007)
Wheel of Fortune not only provides the most comprehensive history of the Russian oil sector to date, but its greatest virtue is that it places the industry's rise in a broader political and historical context that only a deep observer like Thane Gustafson can provide. (Francis Fukuyama, author of The Origins of Political Order)
A tale of the struggle for power and money in the Russian oil industry—with fateful consequence for both Russia and the world. (Andrew Gould, former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Schlumberger Limited)
For specialists in geopolitics or global energy, this exacting and lucid account should be required reading. (Publishers Weekly 2012-10-08)
Gustafson notes that the Russian oil economy is at a crossroads, with no clear signal ahead. It might well revert to state control, or it might become a free-market leader...A useful, readable primer in a specialized but strategically important corner of geopolitics. (Kirkus Reviews 2012-11-01)
Russian oil has had a bumpy ride. The world leader in the 1980s, the industry went into steep decline with the Soviet Union's dismantling in 1991. When the Iron Curtain rose, the state's oilmen--mostly geologists and engineers--were shocked by a global industry rife with lawyers and traders. Now oil and roubles shunt through the pipelines of new Russia but the relationship between state and industry is often explosive. Energy-policy analyst Thane Gustafson reveals Vladimir Putin's pivotal role, the effects of the 2008 crash, and the complex currents and uncertain future of regional oil. (Nature 2012-11-22)
Few have studied the Russian oil and gas industry longer or with a broader political perspective than Gustafson. The result is this superb book, which is not merely a fascinating, subtle history of the industry since the Soviet Union's collapse but also the single most revealing work on Russian politics and economics published in the last several years. (Robert Legvold Foreign Affairs 2013-01-01)
Gustafson has made an important contribution to the study of Russian capitalism. (Y. Polsky Choice 2013-04-01)
Thane Gustafson's Wheel of Fortune is the fullest account so far of Russian oil in the 1990s and 2000s...Wheel of Fortune is...built on an impressive grasp of the way the Russian oil industry works. But its arguments also have a wider relevance for understanding the country's post-Soviet fortunes...What Wheel of Fortune describes is not so much the displacement of private companies by a state-led model as the creation of a new hybrid form...This blurring of the personnel, motivations and strategic orientations of state and private sectors is the hallmark of contemporary Russian capitalism. No one reading this book could think the Soviet system is simply being re-created under Putin: the most likely outcome of another round of privatizations, it suggests, is a concerted attempt by the state-business elite to turn the companies it controls into private property. (Tony Wood London Review of Books 2013-06-06)
The history of Russia's oil industry since the collapse of communism is the history of the country itself. There can be few better guides to this terrain than Thane Gustafson, a professor of government at Georgetown University who has been studying Russia and global oil for more than three decades. His Wheel of Fortune stands out amid a series of recent books on Russia, combining meticulous research with a storyteller's gift. (Neil Buckley Financial Times 2013-06-01)
Thane Gustafson has produced what will surely be the definitive work on this subject...For the past twenty years Gustafson has shuttled back and forth to Russia, getting to know many of the key players. Having been present at the creation, he is uniquely placed to combine an insider's knowledge of how the industry works with academic analytical skills and a sophisticated understanding of Russian culture and politics. (Peter Rutland Times Literary Supplement 2013-07-14)
A thorough history...of the symbiosis of oil and politics since the unraveling of the Soviet Union. Gustafson masterfully cuts through the confusion of the immediate post-Soviet period to distil a clear narrative about the struggles of the first Russian oil majors and the oligarchs who came to control them; the contributions and failures of international investment in Russia's oil sector; the genesis of energy-attuned leaders; and the evolution of the institutions regulating the sector today. After four decades of studying Soviet/Russian politics and a concurrent two decades of leading IHS CERA's Russian and Caspian energy consulting team, Gustafson has a rare combination of academic understanding and industry acumen, which informs a top-notch analysis of the forces shaping Russia's current economic and political trajectory. The book takes readers through stories of a motley cast of characters: from a handful of obscure Siberian oil generals who inherited control of prize fields, to budding businessmen who rose to become some of the richest in Russia, to public servants for the city of St. Petersburg who came to dominate the country's political machine. Gustafson's research draws on scores of personal interviews with key government and industry players over 20 years. With a keenly observant eye, Gustafson tracks the impact that each of these individuals had on the course of development of the oil industry and its relationship with the political apparatus.
(Catherine Yusupov International Affairs 2013-07-01)
About the Author
Thane Gustafson is Professor of Government at Georgetown University and Senior Director of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
Most helpful customer reviews
24 of 24 people found the following review helpful.
The Battle for Oil and Power in Russia.
By Igor Biryukov
Mr. Gustafson's Magnum Opus is well-informed and meticulously researched. He has 100 pages of wonderful endnotes. It's a sizable book -- it took me a month to complete it. It ends with a question mark -- and I like that. It is not a usual journalistic "hack-job", in which the US / UK authors often excel when writing on Russia (see for example "New Cold War" by Edward Lucas and dozens of other pulp). Gustafson is a serious academic who probably used to work for the US intelligence as an analyst writing report on the Soviet energy sector.
The book shows Gustafson's substantial knowledge of the petroleum industry as well Russia itself. His knowledge of the details is so amazing that it prompted me to mention the intelligence community link above. He has a number of anecdotes and personal observations to offer. His perspective is American, not Russian; but I think he did his best to be in the Russian shoes -- which is not easy (believe me, I lived in Russia for 30 years).
To me the book was a breath of fresh air because of its "realist" position. Many Anglo-American authors show Russia's "Petrocracy" as a threat to America's interests. Neoconservative think tanks and other organizations keep harping that Russia is sliding into "despotism" and continue blackening Russia's image by churning up a distorted coverage of critical events and policies. Soon after Khodorkovsky was arrested on charges of multiple fraud and tax evasion back in 2003, numerous publications and articles with titles such as "Russia on Trial" and "The Kremlin's Mafia" appeared to promote the image of Khodorkovsky as a courageous opposition leader acting to challenge "despotic" Kremlin.
I am skeptical about that image. So appears to be Mr. Gustafson who is not inclined to prettify neither Khodorkovsky nor Yukos. Yet the book is not treating Khodorkovsky consistently, although the theme of Yukos is central. Khodorkovsky's image varies from page to page. In the end, he appears (at least to me) as an unbalanced and reckless operator. A techno-nerd who acquired the crown jewel for a pittance and who was quick to challenge anyone who opposed him -- including the Kremlin -- with unnecessary ferociousness. That doesn't look to me like a sane mind even though may be a brilliant one. He turned Yukos into "rogue elephant". It's just my impression.
The book, while excellent, has two defects in my opinion. There is a contraction in the book and a missing part.
A missing part is obvious: it is a (missing) international perspective. The oil market is global. It is affected by global events. One cannot speculate about the future of Russian oil without putting it in global context. Yet Gustafson seem not interested in that.
The survival of the Russian oil industry will be in the international environment. The Russian government has little control over it. Yet the international environment has an effect on Russia. America's economic future -- which is a big unknown -- is a key. The fate of Oil depends on the fate of the US in two ways. One -- is via "the mighty dollar" since the oil is traded in the US dollars. The value of dollar is bolstered because it's a lubricant for the international oil trade. But there is more -- the fate of the oil will depend on whether the US might be bogged down in more wars; and whether it would reform its economy. Another wild card is Iran: any disturbance there will have profound consequences for the price of oil and a profound effect on Russia. Gustafson is silent about all of these issues. They are outside his survey.
The Russians are passive price-takers at the "global oil exchange" and they know it (so does Gustafson). This is causing resentment. The global oil market is dominated by the US heavy-weights and the price of oil is itself fixed in the US dollars. This means that Russian prosperity depends on American whimsy. Obviously the Russians realize that and work hard to safeguard themselves. Much of what the Russians have been doing and WILL DO could be explained by that.
The contradiction of the book is rather more serious in my view. The author is calling for a radical overhaul of the Russian system. This is on the basis that ONLY this serious overhaul can stop the slide of oil production levels. He is right that the Russian state depends on oil revenues to subsidize its social programs. The revenues are poised to decline unless the state reforms itself and reforms the oil industry. But this contradicts his premise that the Russian state is not modern precisely because it depends on the oil revenues too much. Perhaps if the Russians stop being dependant the oil revenues would be a good thing after all? We are in a conundrum.
I think the idea of radical overhaul is wrong. Leave Russia along, let Russian economy evolve. The radical measures will not bring any good -- they rarely do. Russian petroleum production was destroyed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. There was so-called "shock therapy" which was in fact shock without therapy. The advice and economic justification for the "shock therapy" came from the West. The "therapy" implemented by the unwitting Russians "young democratic economists" such as Egor Gaydar and others based on "half-baked" ideas of the Harvard economists. It caused significant destruction of the Russian industry, removal of the "social net", and social dislocation. It is unlikely that Russians will listen to the advice coming form the West again. This is inevitable.
Like a phoenix, Russia today is dynamic and vibrant economically which is not stressed by Gustafson enough in my view. Regardless of oil's decline or rise, Russia will be the largest consumer products market in Europe by 2020. Already the Russian growth is consumer-doriven. The oil will gradually be removed from the pedestal. The last thing Russia needs is another revolution: political or economic. The changes the author enumerates at the end of the book will amount to a political revolution. Perhaps Russia needs change, perhaps not, I am skeptical.
Russian oil production had risen from one million barrels per day after the collapse of the Soviet Union to 10.5 million last year. This is despite a popular image (see the latest Foreign Affairs magazine) of the "Russian Bear" who is drinking oil from an easy source. The truth is the reverse: Russians have been working on it very hard. Russia is number one world producer and exporter today because of their hard work in very difficult conditions of Siberia.
Gustafson only half-explained how it was possible with ostensibly outdated methods and wrong organization. I think to the contrary. I think Russia has created a new paradigm where the oil industry is not nationalized (like in Mexico or the Saudi Arabia) but not completely private (like in the US). In this paradigm, the Russians created a unique, Russian fusion of the state and private business. The case in point is not just Rosneft, which is a quasi-autonomous business organization. It is not your typical Soviet "Ministry of Oil" anymore. Meanwhile the two top Russian oil companies (Lukoil, # 2 and Surgutneftegaz, # 5) are still not nationalized and are having a good run. Let the Russians be Russians. They will never be like Americans. Let them continue with the organic development.
Are there problems in Russian oil industry? Sure. But they are not about the state's excessive involvement. For me the problem number one Gustafson doesn't mention at all. It is Russia's exclusion from the lucrative global $20 trillion dollar trade of oil and its PAPER derivatives. Obviously, trade of the derivative securities is much bigger the trade of physical oil. Most of the trade is controlled from the US and UK: it is carried out in London, New York and Chicago. The city of Moscow is not even on the map, it is a VERY junior partner. Moscow must become one of the centers or die. The Russian state must take a more energetic leadership role, not withdraw. The book reflects the ingrained "free-market" pieties of the American elites. These pieties still linger. But like in Russia in 2003, the replacement of "free market" by American economic nationalism has been an ironic turn of events given a messianic devotion to universal free markets exhibited by the policy makers and economic writers in recent years. Overall I liked the book and I recommend it.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Convincing analysis of the drivers of Russia's oil political complex
By O&G executive
Thane masterfully succeeded in uncovering the fundamental drivers of the Russian oil industry and its interdependency with the political complex through a comprehensive and convincing historical analysis, with plenty of meaningful insights and endearing anecdotes. Rooted in Soviet legacy and having gone through the 90s bust-boom roller coaster and 2000s state reconsolidation the industry is a unique globally isolated eco system, and, with Russia as a whole, is at a crossroads. A must read for any decision maker in the O&G business.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Good research
By Anton
The author is an expert in Russian O&G business and Russian economics in general. This makes his story sound comprehensive and professional. However, in my view, some judgments are biased and speculative, and that is usually when the dark prospectives of Russian O&G are discussed. The book is built on wide factual base and has plenty of links for follow-up reading. Overall it is a great work, highly recommended to those who interested in Russian O&G history.
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